Roadhouse Twin Lakes — Pricing Tool Impact 265 days live
Snapshot as of November 5, 2026 · Dynamic pricing tool launched February 13, 2026 · All years compared at the same point in the booking calendar
2026 Revenue (YTD pace)
$264,587
▲ 7.0% vs 2025 · ▲ 73.2% vs 2022–25 avg
Nights Booked
1,071
▲ 29.0% vs 830 in 2025
2027 Forward Book
$42,266
23 bookings · 97 nights already on the books
Forward Pace Growth
+48%
vs $28,635 booked at this date last year
The headline: 2026 revenue is running $264,587 — 7.0% ahead of 2025 and 73.2% ahead of the 2022–2025 average of $152,738. The gain is volume-driven: nights are up 29.0% while the average nightly rate fell from $298 to $247. The pricing tool is filling more calendar at lower per-night prices, and the arithmetic is still netting out positive. The YOY premium has eased from 8.4% on October 31 to 7.0% today.
Since Tool Launch — February 13, 2026
Bookings Taken
483
84% of all 2026 bookings
Revenue Booked
$180,727
68% of 2026 revenue on the books
Nights Booked
810
76% of 2026 nights
Booking Velocity
1.82
bookings per day over 265 days
In the 265 days since launch the properties have taken 483 bookings worth $180,727 in 2026 stay-nights — about two bookings a day, every day. That is the bulk of the year's volume compressed into roughly nine months.
All Properties — Year Over Year
Stay Year
Bookings
Nights
Revenue
Avg Nightly Rate
2022
37
138
$77,881
$564
2023
52
188
$102,380
$545
2024
187
474
$183,307
$387
2025
397
830
$247,385
$298
2026
576
1,071
$264,587
$247
2027 (forward)
23
97
$42,266
$436
2022
$77,881
2023
$102,380
2024
$183,307
2025
$247,385
2026
$264,587
Revenue has grown every year in the series, but the shape of the growth changed. Through 2023 the nightly rate held in the mid-$500s ($564 → $547). Since 2024 the business has earned more at a falling rate — $387, then $298, now $247. Bookings are up 15.6× since 2022 while the nightly rate is down 56.2%. Watch that the rate decline stays a deliberate trade and not a drift.
Property Breakdown
Grizzly Maze
Year
Bookings
Nights
Revenue
Rate
2022
37
138
$77,881
$564
2023
39
170
$98,755
$581
2024
60
209
$125,438
$600
2025
62
217
$126,108
$581
2026
69
261
$120,424
$461
2027 (forward)
15
71
$36,126
$509
Grizzly revenue is down 4.5% year over year — $126,108 to $120,424 — despite selling 44 more nights (+20.3%). The rate fell 20.7%, from $581 to $461, and the discount more than cancelled the added occupancy. This is the one number worth interrogating: Grizzly is the only line in the report going backwards, and the gap has widened from −3.3% on October 31 to −4.5% today.
Roadhouse Lodge
Year
Bookings
Nights
Revenue
Rate
2022
—
—
—
—
2023
13
18
$3,626
$201
2024
127
265
$57,870
$218
2025
335
613
$121,278
$198
2026
507
810
$144,163
$178
2027 (forward)
8
26
$6,140
$236
The Lodge is carrying all of the growth: revenue +18.9% to $144,163 on 810 nights (+32.1%). Its rate also slipped, $198 → $178 (-10.1%), but at this volume the trade clearly pays. 2026 is the first year the Lodge out-earns Grizzly — $144,163 vs $120,424, a gap of $23,739.
2026 Channel Mix
Channel
Bookings
Nights
Revenue
% of Revenue
Airbnb
293
634
$182,046
68.8%
Direct
167
278
$52,975
20.0%
Booking.com
105
138
$24,830
9.4%
VRBO
11
21
$4,735
1.8%
Total
576
1,071
$264,587
100%
Direct booking is now 20.0% of revenue ($52,975). At the observed Airbnb commission rate of 14.8%, that direct volume represents roughly $7,840 in commission avoided this year. Airbnb still drives 68.8% of revenue — the concentration is a real dependency worth watching.
Forward Booking Pace
Next-year nights already on the books as of Nov 5 in each prior year — the cleanest read on whether the calendar is filling earlier.
Snapshot Date
For Stay Year
Bookings
Nights
Revenue
Nov 5, 2022
2023
19
92
$53,275
Nov 5, 2023
2024
9
37
$24,539
Nov 5, 2024
2025
6
21
$13,933
Nov 5, 2025
2026
21
81
$28,635
Nov 5, 2026
2027
23
97
$42,266
Forward pace is the strongest signal in this report. $42,266 across 97 nights is 1.48× last year's $28,635 and the second-best forward position in the five-year series — behind 2023's $53,275, which was booked on only 92 nights. Guests are committing to 2027 earlier than they committed to any stay year other than 2023.
2027 Bookings on the Books
Guest
Property
Check-in
Nights
Payout
Rate/Night
A’Briana
Grizzly Maze
Jan 15
3
$1,567
$522
Jasmin Calderon
Grizzly Maze
Jan 21
6
$2,020
$337
Harper Rollins
Grizzly Maze
Jan 27
4
$1,532
$383
Heather Dudek
Penthouse
Jan 29
3
$547
$182
Jace
Lodge Room 2
Jan 29
3
$276
$92
Joanna Haring
Grizzly Maze
Jan 31
6
$2,357
$393
Jaci House
Grizzly Maze
Feb 11
4
$2,267
$567
Lauren Black
Grizzly Maze
Feb 18
5
$1,760
$352
Jeffry Frawley
Grizzly Maze
Feb 25
6
$2,103
$351
Shannon Faber
Lodge Room 2
Feb 26
2
$193
$96
Hailee Gill
Lodge Room 1
Mar 1
3
$276
$92
Avery Davis
Grizzly Maze
Mar 5
7
$2,467
$352
Sydney Derby
Penthouse
Mar 6
2
$511
$256
Kathy Busalacchi
Grizzly Maze
Mar 21
3
$1,349
$450
Sarah Higginbotham
Grizzly Maze
Apr 17
5
$1,671
$334
Wychocki Jon
Penthouse
May 18
3
$613
$204
Joe Cardosi
Grizzly Maze
Jun 24
3
$2,093
$698
Jane Sullivan
Grizzly Maze
Jul 1
5
$4,356
$871
Heather Proc
Penthouse
Jul 7
2
$632
$316
Jessica Kratz
Grizzly Maze
Aug 8
7
$4,843
$692
Daniel Fragoso
Penthouse
Aug 15
8
$3,091
$386
Jess Appel
Grizzly Maze
Aug 19
5
$4,256
$851
22 bookings
—
—
95
$40,780
$429
This list shows the 22 bookings that check in during 2027 (95 nights, $40,780). The forward-pace table above counts 23 bookings, 97 nights and $42,266 because a stay checking in during late December 2026 runs across New Year’s and contributes nights to 2027 under per-night splitting.
14 of 22 2027 bookings are Grizzly Maze, and the summer run — Joe Cardosi at $698/night, Jessica Kratz at $692, Jess Appel at $851 and Jane Sullivan at $871 — books at up to 1.9× Grizzly's 2026 average of $461. Peak-season pricing power is intact; it is the shoulder and off-season rates that have come down. Since the October 31 snapshot, Faith Hughes's Jan 4 Grizzly stay is no longer on the books.
What to Watch
Grizzly keeps sliding. Revenue is down 4.5% YOY on 20.3% more nights; the gap widened from −3.3% on October 31 to −4.5% today. The discount is costing more than the added occupancy returns. Test holding rates on Grizzly's high-demand dates.
The YOY premium eased. 2026 was +8.4% over 2025 on October 31 and is +7.0% today. Keep an eye on November–December availability and pricing.
Rate erosion across the board. Blended rate is down 17.1% YOY to $247. Total revenue is still up, so the trade works in aggregate, but the margin for error narrows each year it continues.
Airbnb concentration. 68.8% of revenue on one channel. Direct at 20.0% is real progress and saves roughly $7,840 in commission — worth pushing further.
Forward pace is the win. 1.48× last year and second-best in the five-year series. If it holds, 2027 starts from a materially stronger base than any recent year.
Methodology
Revenue is total_payout — net of OTA commission, not gross guest spend. Status filter: only reservations marked confirmed or accepted are counted. Per-night splitting: each reservation is expanded into individual stay-nights and its payout divided evenly across them. A stay spanning December 30 – January 2 therefore contributes revenue to both calendar years, assigned by the year of each night rather than the check-in date. Snapshot pacing: every year is truncated at reservations booked on or before November 5 of that year, so year-over-year comparisons are measured at the same point in each booking cycle. Full-year 2022–2025 totals will be higher than shown here. Historical average is the mean of 2022–2025 snapshot revenue: $152,738. Commission savings = 2026 direct-channel revenue × the observed 14.8% average Airbnb commission rate.